PS3 will sink? won't sink?
Analysts are funny.
They are almost like economists when it comes to their amazing ability to disagree with each other.
Even game industry analysts can't agree. One "analyst" says that the Blu-Ray will sink the PS3 while another says that the PS3 will lead all other consoles in sales by 2011.
So let's look at the first "claim:"
While I do think Sony is gambling big on Blu-Ray, I don't think it will "sink" the PS3. Sony always backs new technology and sometimes it actually works. After all, the PS3 isn't going to be the only platform that plays Blu-Ray Discs. Sony will also have Blu-Ray players out too. So will the new disc format kill Sony? I think not.
But what about this theory that Sony will lead in console sales? Well let's look at that, shall we?
There's no doubt that Sony knows how to build game consoles. And in order to do so you do need to be leading edge. That's the whole idea behind sticking in a Blu-ray drive into the console.
But to say that because of these types of "innovation" that Sony will "capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011" is quite a statement. One that I disagree with whole heartedly.
That is because you are assuming that there won't be any other consoles out there in the next 5 years. Excuse me?
Do you really think that there won't be a new gaming console between now and then? That there won't be some new innovation out there that drives the next generation of consoles after the 360/PS3/Wii? Gimme a break.
Just look back in history, how quickly did M$ release the 360 after the original Xbox? I'm pretty sure we'll see another Xbox between now and 2011. Just because that's Microsoft's way.
And as far as the Wii goes, I see this as a stepping stone for Nintendo. Granted we haven't seen much from Nintendo in the years leading up to the Wii, but I'm sure there'll be something else out there before 2010 - even if it is just an upgraded version of the Wii.
So to say that Sony will dominate in console sales is a lttle short sighted in my opinion.
But hey, that's just me :)
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